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Light Heavyweight

Seth Petruzelli vs Karlos Vemola

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami ·Konig Pilsener Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Seth Petruzelli
Karlos Vemola
39% 61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
14-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Petruzelli: 3 sig / 0 TD · Vemola: 18 sig / 2 TD
Seth Petruzelli
Karlos Vemola
30
Sig strikes landed
36
56
Sig strikes attempted
71
42
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Seth Petruzelli

"The Silverback"
14-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Blue corner
L1

Karlos Vemola

17-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin