Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Duane Ludwig
Nick Osipczak
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
21-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
6-4
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ludwig: 99 sig / 0 TD ·
Osipczak: 60 sig / 2 TD
Duane Ludwig
Nick Osipczak
54
Sig strikes landed
34
132
Sig strikes attempted
69
68
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L2
Nick Osipczak
6-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—