Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dominic Clark
David Douglas
84%
16%
Why
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dominic Clark
David Douglas
43
Sig strikes landed
42
107
Sig strikes attempted
106
59
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dominic Clark
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
25
Blue corner
David Douglas
"Tarzan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
29