Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh McDonald
Ron Keslar
81%
19%
Why
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Josh McDonald
Ron Keslar
50
Sig strikes landed
41
111
Sig strikes attempted
105
70
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh McDonald
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
L1
Ron Keslar
11-10
Career record
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
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