Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Madsen
Gilbert Yvel
31%
69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
31
Age
Δ 4y
34
9-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
39-17-1
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Madsen: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Yvel: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jon Madsen
Gilbert Yvel
31
Sig strikes landed
23
51
Sig strikes attempted
48
46
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jon Madsen
9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L2
Gilbert Yvel
"The Hurricane"
39-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—