Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Thompson
Yusuke Kawaguchi
72%
28%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 2
Thompson: 59 sig / 3 TD ·
Kawaguchi: 43 sig / 0 TD
James Thompson
Yusuke Kawaguchi
47
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
105
78
Total strikes landed
79
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Thompson
"The Colossus"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Yusuke Kawaguchi
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
30