Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Hideo Tokoro
Joachim Hansen
41%
59%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
34-30-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
23-15-1
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tokoro: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Hansen: 13 sig / 1 TD
Hideo Tokoro
Joachim Hansen
71
Sig strikes landed
41
164
Sig strikes attempted
85
60
Total strikes landed
75
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.80
Knockdowns
0.30
71s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Hideo Tokoro
34-30-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
L2
Joachim Hansen
"Hellboy"
23-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
DREAM 14
—
L
DREAM 13
—