Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ryan Diaz
Chris Gruetzemacher
44%
56%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Ryan Diaz
Chris Gruetzemacher
39
Sig strikes landed
56
93
Sig strikes attempted
111
53
Total strikes landed
80
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
132s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Diaz
0-0
Career record
Age
32
Blue corner
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24