Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caros Fodor
Thomas Diagne
86%
14%
Why
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caros Fodor
Thomas Diagne
40
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
104
57
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Caros Fodor
"The Future"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Thomas Diagne
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
27