Back to UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
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Jon Jones vs Vladimir Matyushenko

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Vladimir Matyushenko
93% 7%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
74"
23
Age
Δ 17y
40
29-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
28-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jones: 15 sig / 1 TD · Matyushenko: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Vladimir Matyushenko
31
Sig strikes landed
9
63
Sig strikes attempted
82
46
Total strikes landed
21
6.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
7.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
326s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
35%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jon Jones

"Bones"
29-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Blue corner
W1

Vladimir Matyushenko

"The Janitor"
28-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Live: Vera vs Jones