Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kazuhiro Nakamura
Karl Amoussou
22%
78%
Why
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Nakamura: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Amoussou: 22 sig / 0 TD
Kazuhiro Nakamura
Karl Amoussou
36
Sig strikes landed
45
81
Sig strikes attempted
85
65
Total strikes landed
73
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
140s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kazuhiro Nakamura
"Kaz"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Karl Amoussou
"The Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25