Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Tatsuya Kawajiri
78%
22%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aoki: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Kawajiri: 2 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Tatsuya Kawajiri
34
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
61
50
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32