Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Pat Healy
56%
44%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Thomson: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Healy: 17 sig / 4 TD
Josh Thomson
Pat Healy
45
Sig strikes landed
57
118
Sig strikes attempted
113
54
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.70
153s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
35-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
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