Heavyweight
Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fedor Emelianenko
Fabricio Werdum
86%
14%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Emelianenko: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Werdum: 1 sig / 0 TD
Fedor Emelianenko
Fabricio Werdum
33
Sig strikes landed
32
64
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
49
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Fedor Emelianenko
"The Last Emperor"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33