Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pro Escobedo
Jason Sharp
80%
20%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pro Escobedo
Jason Sharp
38
Sig strikes landed
37
91
Sig strikes attempted
90
74
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
158s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Pro Escobedo
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Jason Sharp
0-0
Career record