Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Karen Darabedyan
Will Kerr
66%
34%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Darabedyan: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Kerr: 5 sig / 0 TD
Karen Darabedyan
Will Kerr
24
Sig strikes landed
33
46
Sig strikes attempted
60
42
Total strikes landed
52
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
241s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karen Darabedyan
13-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Will Kerr
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28