Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Horodecki
Danny Downes
77%
23%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 2y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Horodecki: 72 sig / 4 TD ·
Downes: 24 sig / 0 TD
Chris Horodecki
Danny Downes
38
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
186s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Horodecki
"The Polish Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Danny Downes
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24