Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jamie Varner
Kamal Shalorus
82%
18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
26
Age
Δ 12y
38
21-12-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-5-2
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Varner: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Shalorus: 56 sig / 1 TD
Jamie Varner
Kamal Shalorus
46
Sig strikes landed
38
98
Sig strikes attempted
111
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
260s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jamie Varner
21-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Kamal Shalorus
"Prince of Persia"
10-5-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—