Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
Jesse Lennox
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pyle: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Lennox: 37 sig / 1 TD
Mike Pyle
Jesse Lennox
36
Sig strikes landed
27
65
Sig strikes attempted
64
46
Total strikes landed
54
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Jesse Lennox
"The Ox"
14-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—