Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Wilks
Peter Sobotta
28%
72%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
32
Age
Δ 9y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wilks: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Sobotta: 15 sig / 1 TD
James Wilks
Peter Sobotta
33
Sig strikes landed
39
66
Sig strikes attempted
80
46
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
115s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Wilks
"Lightning"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Peter Sobotta
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23