Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jesse Forbes
Ryan Jensen
63%
37%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
15-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Forbes: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Jensen: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jesse Forbes
Ryan Jensen
23
Sig strikes landed
38
85
Sig strikes attempted
63
48
Total strikes landed
47
1.9
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jesse Forbes
"Kid Hercules"
15-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Jensen
21-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—