Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aaron Riley
Joe Brammer
78%
22%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riley: 46 sig / 3 TD ·
Brammer: 37 sig / 1 TD
Aaron Riley
Joe Brammer
38
Sig strikes landed
32
77
Sig strikes attempted
70
56
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Aaron Riley
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Joe Brammer
"The South Side Strangler"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27