Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Waylon Lowe
71%
29%
Why
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Guillard: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Lowe: 1 sig / 1 TD
Melvin Guillard
Waylon Lowe
41
Sig strikes landed
30
87
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
Waylon Lowe
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30