Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jason MacDonald
John Salter
39%
61%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
MacDonald: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Salter: 3 sig / 1 TD
Jason MacDonald
John Salter
35
Sig strikes landed
33
58
Sig strikes attempted
80
46
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
172s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
L1
John Salter
14-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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