Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andre Winner
Rafaello Oliveira
60%
40%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Winner: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 52 sig / 0 TD
Andre Winner
Rafaello Oliveira
19
Sig strikes landed
17
39
Sig strikes attempted
29
42
Total strikes landed
39
0.5
Takedowns landed
3.0
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
101s
Control time
282s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andre Winner
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W1
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
18-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—