Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matthew Riddle
Greg Soto
58%
42%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 3
Riddle: 47 sig / 4 TD ·
Soto: 21 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Riddle
Greg Soto
36
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
71
48
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
183s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
Blue corner
Greg Soto
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24