Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Miguel Torres
24%
76%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 11"
76"
26
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Benavidez: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Torres: 17 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Miguel Torres
31
Sig strikes landed
34
61
Sig strikes attempted
74
47
Total strikes landed
46
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joseph Benavidez
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner
Miguel Torres
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29