Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Javier Vazquez
Jens Pulver
72%
28%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 3y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Vazquez: 3 sig / 3 TD ·
Pulver: 8 sig / 0 TD
Javier Vazquez
Jens Pulver
38
Sig strikes landed
38
84
Sig strikes attempted
83
54
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Javier Vazquez
"Showtime"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner
Jens Pulver
"Little Evil"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35