Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Will Campuzano
Coty Wheeler
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
24
Age
Δ 8y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Campuzano: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Wheeler: 34 sig / 1 TD
Will Campuzano
Coty Wheeler
38
Sig strikes landed
32
77
Sig strikes attempted
65
52
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Will Campuzano
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Coty Wheeler
"Ox"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31