Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pablo Alfonso
Marcos da Matta
79%
21%
Why
27
Age
Δ 10y
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pablo Alfonso
Marcos da Matta
41
Sig strikes landed
44
100
Sig strikes attempted
86
57
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Pablo Alfonso
"The Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
27
Blue corner
Marcos da Matta
"Parrumpinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
37