Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nurullo Aliev
Mike Davis
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
12-0
Career record
Δ 19 pp
13-3
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aliev: 13 sig / 8 TD ·
Davis: 22 sig / 0 TD
Nurullo Aliev
Mike Davis
44
Sig strikes landed
44
84
Sig strikes attempted
83
99
Total strikes landed
58
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
296s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
12-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Davis
"Beast Boy"
13-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—