Back to UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Prelims1 Lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez ·Belgrade Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Kyle Prepolec
86% 14%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
20-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-11
L3
Current streak
L4
8
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rebecki: 67 sig / 1 TD · Prepolec: 4 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Kyle Prepolec
58
Sig strikes landed
52
124
Sig strikes attempted
134
86
Total strikes landed
62
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Mateusz Rebecki

20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
—
L UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
Blue corner
L4

Kyle Prepolec

"Killshot"
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 4 fights · 0-4
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
L UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—