Prelims1
Welterweight
Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
·Belgrade Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Oban Elliott
Michael Oliveira
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
29
Age
Δ 0y
28
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Elliott: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 14 sig / 0 TD
Oban Elliott
Michael Oliveira
43
Sig strikes landed
42
87
Sig strikes attempted
84
57
Total strikes landed
77
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Oban Elliott
"The Welsh Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
Blue corner
Michael Oliveira
"PQD"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29