Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mark Vologdin
Josias Musasa
60%
40%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 9"
74"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
12-4-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
8-3
D1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Mark Vologdin
Josias Musasa
36
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
61
54
Total strikes landed
38
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Mark Vologdin
12-4-3
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malo…
—
Blue corner
L2
Josias Musasa
"The KO Wizard"
8-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—