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Main Heavyweight

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez ·Belgrade Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Aleksandar Rakic
Marcin Tybura
49% 51%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
34
Age
Δ 6y
41
14-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-12
L4
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Aleksandar Rakic
Marcin Tybura
45
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
77
57
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Aleksandar Rakic

"Rocket"
14-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L2

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 24 fights · 14-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. P…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—