Back to UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Main Featherweight

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman ·Paycom Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tommy McMillen
Alberto Montes
72% 28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
29
Age
Δ 4y
32
11-0
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
McMillen: 252 sig / 0 TD · Montes: 56 sig / 0 TD
Tommy McMillen
Alberto Montes
50
Sig strikes landed
35
91
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
93s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Tommy McMillen

"Gun"
11-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Du…
—
Blue corner
W1

Alberto Montes

"The Promise"
13-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
—