Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Jacobe Smith
58%
42%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 9"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
30-15
Career record
Δ 33 pp
13-0
W1
Current streak
W3
29
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Kevin Holland
Jacobe Smith
38
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
56
50
Total strikes landed
67
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
100s
Control time
305s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
64%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
29 fights · 16-12
Last 5
W
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
13-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—