Back to UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Prelims1 Welterweight

Tahir Abdullayev vs Jefferson Nascimento

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres ·National Gymnastics Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tahir Abdullayev
Jefferson Nascimento
67% 33%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Abdullayev: 37 sig / 2 TD · Nascimento: 35 sig / 0 TD
Tahir Abdullayev
Jefferson Nascimento
39
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tahir Abdullayev

"Tank"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Jefferson Nascimento

"Toddynho"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28