Back to UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Prelims1 Featherweight

Shane Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Shane Collins
Otari Tanzilovi
60% 40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Collins: 76 sig / 0 TD · Tanzilovi: 58 sig / 5 TD
Shane Collins
Otari Tanzilovi
35
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
70
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Shane Collins

"Hollywood"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Otari Tanzilovi

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28