Prelims2
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeremiah Wells
Myktybek Orolbai
28%
72%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
40
Age
Δ 11y
28
14-4-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-2-1
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Wells: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Orolbai: 26 sig / 4 TD
Jeremiah Wells
Myktybek Orolbai
19
Sig strikes landed
34
40
Sig strikes attempted
64
39
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
205s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jeremiah Wells
14-4-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
Blue corner
W3
Myktybek Orolbai
17-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—