🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
29-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-1
W8
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Makhachev: 22 sig / 7 TD ·
Machado Garry: 29 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
42
Sig strikes landed
51
57
Sig strikes attempted
90
62
Total strikes landed
71
2.7
Takedowns landed
-0.1
7.9
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
308s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
18 fights · 17-1
Last 5
W
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—