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Main Women's Strawweight

Machi Fukuda vs Anelya Toktogonova

Road To UFC 5.2 ·Galaxy Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Machi Fukuda
Anelya Toktogonova
70% 30%
Why
61"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
23
Age
Δ 2y
21

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Fukuda: 14 sig / 9 TD · Toktogonova: 8 sig / 0 TD
Machi Fukuda
Anelya Toktogonova
38
Sig strikes landed
37
87
Sig strikes attempted
95
70
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
187s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Machi Fukuda

"Kakutou Komachi"
0-0
Career record
Height
60"
Reach
61"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner

Anelya Toktogonova

0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21