Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jiniushiyue
Kaito Oda
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
63"
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jiniushiyue: 29 sig / 6 TD ·
Oda: 31 sig / 4 TD
Jiniushiyue
Kaito Oda
37
Sig strikes landed
29
72
Sig strikes attempted
56
52
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jiniushiyue
"Little Vajra"
17-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4
—
L
Road to UFC 2.7
—
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
Blue corner
Kaito Oda
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28