Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Gabriel Bonfim
43%
57%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
24-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
20-1
L2
Current streak
W4
21
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Muhammad: 86 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonfim: 128 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Gabriel Bonfim
52
Sig strikes landed
62
111
Sig strikes attempted
127
64
Total strikes landed
77
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 15-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
W4
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—