Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rei Tsuruya
Luis Gurule
77%
23%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
24
Age
Δ 9y
32
11-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-4
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tsuruya: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Gurule: 1 sig / 0 TD
Rei Tsuruya
Luis Gurule
51
Sig strikes landed
46
114
Sig strikes attempted
94
81
Total strikes landed
59
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
291s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rei Tsuruya
11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
12-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—