Prelims2
Flyweight
Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clayton Carpenter
Jose Ochoa
43%
57%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
30
Age
Δ 4y
25
8-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
9-3
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carpenter: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Ochoa: 153 sig / 0 TD
Clayton Carpenter
Jose Ochoa
31
Sig strikes landed
30
55
Sig strikes attempted
67
45
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
202s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Clayton Carpenter
8-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jose Ochoa
"Kalzifer"
9-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—