Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Lopes
Steve Garcia
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
34
27-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-5
L1
Current streak
W7
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Diego Lopes
Steve Garcia
45
Sig strikes landed
44
95
Sig strikes attempted
102
54
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diego Lopes
27-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
Blue corner
W7
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—