Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje
63%
37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 8y
38
18-0
Career record
Δ 15 pp
28-5
W8
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje
82
Sig strikes landed
64
147
Sig strikes attempted
123
114
Total strikes landed
82
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
W2
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—