Main
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jack Della Maddalena
Carlos Prates
55%
45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
18-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-7
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Della Maddalena: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Prates: 104 sig / 0 TD
Jack Della Maddalena
Carlos Prates
64
Sig strikes landed
43
117
Sig strikes attempted
109
78
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jack Della Maddalena
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
L
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
Blue corner
W2
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
25-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—