Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Alexander Hernandez
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
20-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
19-9
W2
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 59 sig / 4 TD ·
Hernandez: 50 sig / 0 TD
Rafa Garcia
Alexander Hernandez
63
Sig strikes landed
58
130
Sig strikes attempted
142
83
Total strikes landed
67
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
158s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
W4
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—